Thursday, November 6, 2008

United States presidential election, 2008















Presidential election results map. Red denotes states won by McCain/Palin, Blue denotes those won by Obama/Biden, Gray denotes those states not yet decided. Numbers indicate the number of electoral votes allotted to each state. Projected totals include Missouri for McCain and North Carolina for Obama, and one additional Nebraska vote for McCain, although those are not yet official.
Incumbent PresidentGeorge W. BushRepublican
President-ElectBarack ObamaDemocratic

The United States presidential election of 2008, held on Tuesday, November 4, 2008, was the 56th consecutive quadrennial United States presidential election to select the President and the Vice President of the United States.

The Republican Party nominated John McCain, the senior United States Senator from Arizona as its nominee; the Democratic Party nominated Barack Obama, the junior United States Senator from Illinois, as its nominee. The Libertarian Party nominated former Congressman Bob Barr; the Constitution Party, pastor and radio talk show host Chuck Baldwin; and the Green Party, former Congresswoman Cynthia McKinney. Ralph Nader declined to seek the Green Party nomination and ran as an independent candidate.

Obama won the number of electors necessary to be elected President. He is the presumptive president-elect, and, if elected, will be inaugurated on January 20, 2009.[1]

The 2008 election was the first time in U.S. history that an African American won a majority of electoral votes. It was also the first time two sitting senators ran against each other, as well as the first time an African American was a presidential nominee for a major party. Since the Republican nominee for vice-president was a woman, Governor Sarah Palin, the eventual winning ticket was bound to be historic, as neither an African American nor a female had achieved either of the respective offices. If John McCain had been elected, he would have been the oldest first-term president. Senator Joseph Biden is the first Roman Catholic vice president to be elected.

The election coincided with the 2008 Senate elections in thirty-three states, House of Representatives elections in all Congressional districts, and gubernatorial elections in eleven states, as well as various state referenda and local elections. As in the 2004 presidential election, the allocation of electoral votes to each state was based on the 2000 Census. Each state was allocated one electoral vote for each Congressional district, and the remaining two electoral votes represent the two Senators from each state serving the U.S. (Washington D.C. is allotted three by the 23rd Amendment).

No incumbents
The 2008 election marked the first time since the 1952 election that neither the incumbent President nor the incumbent Vice President was a candidate in the general election, and the first time since the 1928 election that neither one was a candidate for his party's nomination.[2] The incumbent President, George W. Bush, was serving his second and final term and was barred from running again by the term limits in the Twenty-second Amendment to the United States Constitution. Vice President Dick Cheney chose not to seek the presidency. From 2001, Cheney frequently stated he would never run for President: "I will say just as hard as I possibly know how to say... If nominated, I will not run; if elected, I will not serve."[3]

In the three previous two-term Presidential administrations—those of Dwight D. Eisenhower, Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton—the incumbent vice president had immediately thereafter run for president. Richard Nixon lost the 1960 election, George H. W. Bush won the 1988 election, and Al Gore lost the 2000 election.[4][5] The 2008 election was the first in which the sitting Vice President was not a candidate for either the presidency or the vice presidency since Nelson Rockefeller in 1976.

Leading candidates were senators
The nominees for the major party nominations were both serving United States Senators: Republican candidate John McCain (Arizona) and Democratic candidate Barack Obama (Illinois). It was the first time in history that the two main opponents in the general election were both sitting Senators.[6] Thus, the 2008 election marked the first time since the election of John F. Kennedy in 1960 that a sitting Senator was elected President of the United States, and only the third time ever in American history, after John F. Kennedy and Warren G. Harding, that the successful vice-presidential candidate (Joe Biden of Delaware) was also a sitting Senator. With Obama's victory, Biden, having been a Senator since January 1973 and having served for the past 36 years, became the longest serving Senator in history to become a first term Vice President. For his part, McCain would have, if elected, become the first prisoner of war since Andrew Jackson to become President as well as the first to become President while winning at least 4 Senate terms. Senator John Kerry was the Democratic nominee in 2004 during his fourth Senate term. He narrowly lost both the popular vote and the Electoral College to President George W. Bush.

Leading candidates' origins
Either major party candidate would have become the first president born outside the continental United States, as Obama was born in Honolulu, Hawaii and McCain was born at Coco Solo, Panama Canal Zone, a US naval base. A bipartisan legal review agreed that McCain is a natural-born citizen of the United States, a constitutional requirement to become president.[7] Obama, having a white mother and Kenyan father of the Luo ethnic group[8] will be the first president to be black and to be biracial. McCain would have been the first president from Arizona, while Obama will be the third president elected from Illinois, the first two being Abraham Lincoln and Ulysses S. Grant[9] (Ronald Reagan was born in Illinois, but was a former governor of California). The last candidates to run from these states were Adlai Stevenson (D) of Illinois, who ran and lost in 1952 and 1956, and Barry Goldwater (R) of Arizona, who ran and lost in 1964. While being elected from Illinois, Obama will become the first president from Hawaii, his home state by birth.

Leading candidates' ages
Had he been elected president, McCain, on January 20, 2009, would have been the oldest U.S. president upon ascension to the presidency at age 72 years and 144 days,[10] and the second-oldest president to be inaugurated (Ronald Reagan was 73 years and 350 days old at his second inauguration).[11] Barack Obama and John McCain are 24 years and 340 days apart in age. This is the largest age disparity between the two major party presidential candidates, surpassing Bill Clinton and Bob Dole (23 years and 28 days apart in age) who ran against each other in the 1996 presidential election.

Election controversies
A number of pre-election controversies revolved around challenges to voter registration lists, involving techniques such as caging lists alleged to constitute voter suppression. Reporter Greg Palast predicted many 2004 United States election voting controversies could recur,[12] and voter list purges using unlawful criteria caused controversy in at least six swing states: Colorado, Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, Nevada and North Carolina.[13] On October 5, 2008 the Republican Lt. Governor of Montana, John Bohlinger, accused the Montana Republican Party of vote caging to purge 6,000 voters from three counties which trend Democratic.[14] Allegations arose in Michigan that the Republican Party planned to challenge the eligibility of voters based on lists of foreclosed homes,[15] which led to a lawsuit from the Obama campaign[16] and a letter from the House Judiciary Committee to the Department of Justice calling for an investigation.[17]

Libertarian candidate Bob Barr filed a lawsuit in Texas petitioning to have Obama and McCain removed from the ballot in that state.[18] The suit alleged that both the Republicans and Democrats missed the deadline to file, and were present on the ballot contrary to Texas election law. The Texas Supreme Court dismissed the lawsuit without giving an explanation.[19]

Virginia election authorities were ordered by a federal judge to preserve late arriving absentee ballots sent by active-duty military personnel following an allegation that the absentee ballots were sent late to servicemen.[20] According to federal law, absentee ballots must be mailed to troops in foreign countries at least 45 days prior to an election. The charge against Virginia was that the ballots were not printed until after the deadline and therefore were mailed late to soldiers abroad

Pre-primary campaign
"Front runner" status is dependent on the news agency reporting, but by October 2007, the consensus listed about six candidates as leading the pack. For example, CNN listed Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, Rudolph Giuliani, Barack Obama, Fred Thompson, and Mitt Romney as the front runners. The Washington Post listed Clinton, Edwards and Obama as the Democratic frontrunners, "leading in polls and fundraising and well ahead of the other major candidates".[22] MSNBC's Chuck Todd christened Giuliani and John McCain the Republican front runners after the second Republican presidential debate.[23]

Three candidates, Clinton, Obama, and Romney, raised over $20 million in the first three months of 2007, and three others, Edwards, Giuliani, and McCain, raised over $12 million; the next closest candidate was Bill Richardson, who raised over $6 million.[24] In the third quarter of 2007, the top four GOP fund raisers were Romney, Giuliani, Thompson, and Ron Paul.[25] Paul set the GOP record for the largest online single day fund raising on November 5, 2007.[26] Hillary Clinton set the Democratic record for largest single day fund raising on June 30, 2007.[27]

Primaries and caucuses
Main articles: Democratic Party (United States) presidential primaries, 2008 and Republican Party (United States) presidential primaries, 2008

Although the nomination process for each of the two major political parties technically continues through June, in previous cycles the candidates were effectively chosen by the March primaries. This trend continued in 2008 on the Republican side, with John McCain locking up the nomination with victories in Texas and Ohio on March 4, but Democrat Barack Obama did not win the nomination until June 3, after a long campaign against Hillary Clinton. Obama had a wide lead in states won, but Democratic state delegate contests have been decided by a form of proportional representation since 1976.[28] Clinton claimed a lead in the popular vote, but the Associated Press found her numbers accurate only in one very close scenario.[29]

During late 2007, both parties adopted rules against states moving their primaries to an earlier date in the year. For the Republicans, the penalty for this violation is supposed to be the loss of half the state party's delegates to the convention. The Democratic Party only allowed four states to hold elections before February 5, 2008. Initially the Democratic Party leadership said it would strip all Democratic delegates from Florida and Michigan, which had moved their primaries all the way into January. All major candidates agreed officially not to campaign in Florida or Michigan, and Edwards and Obama had their names removed from the Michigan ballot. Clinton won a majority of delegates from both states (though 40% voted uncommitted) and subsequently led a fight to fully seat the Florida and Michigan delegates.[30]

Political columnist Christopher Weber notes that while this was self-serving, it was also pragmatic on the part of Clinton should Florida or Michigan voters not vote for Democrats in the general election based on the Democratic Party's decision regarding the seating of delegates.[31] This led to speculation that the fight over the delegates could last until the convention in August. However, on May 31, 2008, a deal was reached by the Rules and Bylaws Committee of the Democratic Party that allows for delegates from Michigan and Florida to receive half a vote each.[32]

January 2008
Around the start of the year, support for Mike Huckabee and Barack Obama began rising in the polls, passing longtime front runners Romney and Clinton for first place in Iowa: the two upstart campaigns were triumphant. John McCain displaced Rudy Giuliani and Romney as the front-runner in New Hampshire.

While Huckabee had little money and was hoping for a third place finish, Obama was the new front runner in New Hampshire and the Clinton campaign was struggling. However, in a turning point for her campaign, Clinton's voice wavered with emotion in a public interview broadcast live on TV.[33] By the end of that day, Clinton won the primary by 2 points, contrary to the predictions of pollsters who had her as much as twelve points behind on the day of the primary itself. McCain also staged a turnaround victory, having been written off by the pundits and in single digits less than a month before.[34]

With the Republicans stripping Michigan and Florida of half their delegates, the Republican race was based there, while the Democrats focused on Nevada and South Carolina, which were given special permission to have early contests; in South Carolina Obama got 55% of the vote. Meanwhile, McCain managed a small victory in South Carolina, setting him up for a larger and more important victory in Florida soon after.

February 2008
On February 3 on the UCLA campus, celebrities Oprah Winfrey, Caroline Kennedy and Stevie Wonder, among others, made appearances to show support for Barack Obama in a rally led by Michelle Obama.[35] Obama trailed in the California polling by an average of 6.0%; he ended up losing the state by 8.3%.[36] Some analysts cited a large Latino turnout as the deciding factor.[37] On the Republican side, John McCain was endorsed by Governor of California Arnold Schwarzenegger and Rudy Giuliani (who had dropped out of the race following the Florida primary), giving McCain a significant boost in California state.[38] Schwarzenegger's wife, Maria Shriver, endorsed Obama.[39] By February 4, it was apparent that McCain might be able to wrap up the nomination quickly, while the Democratic candidates were hoping for a swing of momentum following the February 5 primaries.

Super Tuesday: On February 5, 2008, the largest-ever simultaneous number of state United States presidential primary elections was held.[40] Twenty-four states and American Samoa held either caucuses or primary elections for one or both parties on this date, leaving the Democrats in a virtual tie, and John McCain just short of clinching the Republican nod.[41] A few days later, Mitt Romney suspended his presidential campaign and endorsed McCain, leaving Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul as the only major challengers of McCain in the remaining Republican primaries.[42]

Louisiana and Washington voted for both parties on February 9, while Nebraska and the U.S. Virgin Islands voted for the Democrats and Kansas voted for the Republicans. Obama swept all four Democratic contests, as well as the Maine caucuses the next day,[43] and Huckabee also came out on top in Kansas, winning by an even greater percentage. The District of Columbia, Maryland and Virginia voted for both parties on February 12 in what was referred to as Potomac primary. Obama won all three for the Democrats (giving him eight consecutive victories after Super Tuesday) and McCain took all three for the Republicans.

Obama carried both Hawaii and Wisconsin, the last two states that voted for the Democrats in February, on the 19th.[44] Wisconsin and Washington voted for the Republicans on February 19; John McCain won these states.[44] The Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico closed February for the Republicans, on the 23rd and 24th.

March 2008
For the Republicans, on March 1 American Samoa voted. March 4 was dubbed by some as this year's Mini Tuesday,[45] when the delegate-rich states of Texas and Ohio, along with Rhode Island and Vermont, voted for both parties. Wyoming then voted for the Democrats and Guam voted for the Republicans on March 8. Mississippi voted for both parties on March 11.
On March 4, Hillary Clinton carried Ohio and Rhode Island in the Democratic primaries; some considered this a surprise upset,[46] though she led in the polling averages in both states.[36][47] She also carried the primary in Texas, but Obama won the Texas caucuses held the same day and netted more delegates from the state than Clinton.[48] John McCain clinched the Republican nomination after sweeping all four primaries, Texas, Ohio, Vermont and Rhode Island, putting him over the top of the 1,191 delegates required to win the GOP nomination.[47] Mike Huckabee conceded the race to McCain, leaving Ron Paul, who had just 16 delegates, as his only remaining opponent for the Republican nomination.[49] In the Wyoming Democratic caucuses, Obama edged out Clinton to gain 7 delegates to her 5, and three days later he beat her again, 59%–39%, in Mississippi.

April through June 2008
Only one state voted in April: Pennsylvania, which held a primary for both parties on April 22. Hillary Clinton won this Democratic primary, with approximately 55% of the vote. Barack Obama won the Guam caucuses on May 3 by 7 votes out of more than 4,500. On May 6, Hillary Clinton won the Indiana primary with 51% of the vote while Barack Obama won in North Carolina with 56% of the vote. Nebraska's Republican and West Virginia's Democratic primaries were held on May 13. In West Virginia, Clinton won with 67% of the vote and 20 of 28 pledged delegates. On May 20, Kentucky and Oregon held primaries for both parties. In Kentucky, Clinton won with 65% of the vote to Obama's 31%. In Oregon, Obama defeated Clinton, by a margin of 18%. Idaho voted for Republicans only on May 27. On May 31, Democratic Party officials, after a tense meeting between Clinton supporters and Obama backers, voted to seat all of Florida and Michigan's delegates at the party's convention, with each getting a half-vote.[50] Puerto Rico held a Democratic primary on June 1, which Clinton won with 68% of the vote to Obama's 32%. The primary season ended on June 3, with contests in New Mexico (Republican), Montana (Democratic), and South Dakota (both parties). Clinton won South Dakota's primary, while Obama was victorious in the Montana primary. As expected, John McCain won all the states during this time period handily, though typically 20-25% of the vote in the Republican primaries went to Huckabee and Paul, despite the fact both had already been mathematically eliminated from contention for the nomination.

July 2008
The Illinois Senator Barack Obama took a Middle East trip from Afghanistan to Iraq, Jordan and Israel where a small "Israel for Obama" rally was held for him

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